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Tigres UANL vs Toluca: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Tigres UANL 5.6, Toluca 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Tigres UANL 2.1, Toluca 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Tigres UANL win 35%, draw 26%, Toluca win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Tigres UANL: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 15 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Toluca: last five matches — W-D-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Tigres UANL — 15, Toluca — 1 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tigres UANL at home and Toluca away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Tigres UANL | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 47 |
| Win rate | 64% | 43% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 49% |
Head to head
28 meetings in our database: Tigres UANL won 11, 5 draws, Toluca won 12. Per match: 2.6 goals, 8.5 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 31.05.2026: Toluca 0:0 Tigres UANL
- 18.01.2026: Tigres UANL 0:0 Toluca
- 15.12.2025: Toluca 2:1 Tigres UANL
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Market line without margin: Tigres UANL 35%, draw 26%, Toluca 39%.