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Toktogul vs Muras United: prediction and statistics
Kyrgyzstan · Premier League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Toktogul · Muras United
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 60% of Toktogul home games and 56% of Muras United away games.
- Our model makes Muras United the favourite at 58%; a draw is 22%.
Result
Final score 2:1.
Result
Our model: Toktogul win 20%, draw 22%, Muras United win 58%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Toktogul: last five matches — W-D-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Muras United: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Toktogul — 11, Muras United — 5 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Toktogul at home and Muras United away, 2024–2026.
| Toktogul | Muras United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 41 |
| Win rate | 40% | 59% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Toktogul won 0, 0 draws, Muras United won 1. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 18.03.2026: Toktogul 0:1 Muras United
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Toktogul vs Muras United?
Our model: Toktogul 20%, draw 22%, Muras United 58%.