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Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Toronto FC 5.5, CF Montreal 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Toronto FC 1.8, CF Montreal 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 62%.
Result
Market line without margin: Toronto FC win 49%, draw 24%, CF Montreal win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Toronto FC: last five matches — W-D-D-D-W.
- 16 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
CF Montreal: last five matches — W-L-D-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Toronto FC — 27, CF Montreal — 29 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Toronto FC at home and CF Montreal away, 2024–2026.
| Toronto FC | CF Montreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 47 |
| Win rate | 29% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 73% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 49% |
Head to head
51 meetings in our database: Toronto FC won 22, 10 draws, CF Montreal won 19. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.4 corners, 3.4 yellow cards.
- 16.07.2026: CF Montreal 0:0 Toronto FC
- 30.08.2025: Toronto FC 1:1 CF Montreal
- 17.05.2025: CF Montreal 1:6 Toronto FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
Market line without margin: Toronto FC 49%, draw 24%, CF Montreal 27%.