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Trefelin vs The New Saints: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Trefelin 1.8, The New Saints 1.4; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 21% (typical match — 37%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 44%.
Result
Market line without margin: Trefelin win 3%, draw 6%, The New Saints win 91%. Over 2.5 goals — 78%, both teams to score — 39%.
Form
Trefelin: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 12 matches without a win · all competitions
The New Saints: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 9 wins in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Trefelin — 13, The New Saints — 1 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Trefelin at home and The New Saints away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Trefelin | The New Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 36 |
| Win rate | 0% | 78% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 20% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 15% |
Referee
B. Williams: 30 matches in our database, 4.8 yellow cards per match (competition average 3.6); over 4.5 cards in 63% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Trefelin vs The New Saints?
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 21%.
Who is more likely to win Trefelin vs The New Saints?
Market line without margin: Trefelin 3%, draw 6%, The New Saints 91%.