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Trento vs Cittadella: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Trento · Cittadella
Before kick-off
Trento host Cittadella in Serie C – Girone A on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Trento are 3rd, Cittadella 1st in a table of 20. Both sides are in the top three.
Trento arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Cittadella are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games.
Home advantage matters here: Trento have 23 wins, 18 draws and 4 defeats in 45 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.9 per game. On the road Cittadella are a dangerous side — 13 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats in 25 away matches, 1.1 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
History favours Trento — 3 wins from 5 meetings with Cittadella. Last time out (12 April 2026) it ended Cittadella 1:3 Trento. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Trento: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Cittadella: last five matches — W-W-L-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Trento — 3, Cittadella — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Trento at home and Cittadella away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Trento | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 25 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 23-18-4 | 13-3-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Trento won 3, 1 draws, Cittadella won 1. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 12.04.2026: Cittadella 1:3 Trento
- 05.12.2025: Trento 1:0 Cittadella
- 28.07.2023: Cittadella 1:3 Trento
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Trento has won 3 of the last 5 meetings with Cittadella.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 40% of Trento home games and 36% of Cittadella away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Trento 37%, draw 28%, Cittadella 35%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Trento 2.0, Cittadella 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Trento win 37%, draw 28%, Cittadella win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Trento | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 51% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 32% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.