Troyes vs Le Havre AC: prediction and statistics

France · Ligue 1 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off 19:45 UTC

Before kick-off

Troyes host Le Havre AC in Ligue 1 on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Troyes are 17th, Le Havre AC 18th in a table of 18. Both sides are in the bottom three.

Results have gone against Troyes recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Le Havre AC are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Measured in points the two runs are close — 4 and 4.

Home matches have been a struggle for Troyes (2024/25–2026/27) — 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 6 games, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 on average. Away from home Le Havre AC have 9 wins, 9 draws and 20 defeats in 38 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.7 per game.

The 23 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Troyes 9, Le Havre AC 10, draws 4. Last time out (20 July 2022) it ended Troyes 3:0 Le Havre AC. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.

Form

Troyes: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.

3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions

Le Havre AC: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.

8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
5 losses in a row · all competitions
5 matches without a win · all competitions

Table: Troyes — 17, Le Havre AC — 18 (of 18).

Home and away record

Troyes at home and Le Havre AC away, 2024/25–2026/27.

	Troyes	Le Havre AC
Matches	6	38
Wins · draws · losses	2-1-3	9-9-20
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.8	1.7

Head to head

23 meetings in our database: Troyes won 9, 4 draws, Le Havre AC won 10. Per match: 2.6 goals.

20.07.2022: Troyes 3:0 Le Havre AC
20.07.2022: Le Havre AC 0:3 Troyes
15.05.2021: Le Havre AC 3:2 Troyes

🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription

Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.

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Key facts

Our model makes Troyes the favourite at 52%; a draw is 23%.
Troyes should win the corner count: 5.4 expected against 3.9 for Le Havre AC.
Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Troyes home games and 40% of Le Havre AC away games.

Corners

55%

Corners under 9.5

Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Troyes 5.4, Le Havre AC 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 48%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 52%.

Yellow cards

75%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Troyes 1.5, Le Havre AC 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 33%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 56%, typical match 47%.

Result

Our model: Troyes win 52%, draw 23%, Le Havre AC win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 57%.

Team statistics for three seasons

	Troyes	Le Havre AC
Win rate	33%	24%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%
Both teams score	33%	55%
Total corners per match	8.5	9.8
Over 9.5 corners	33%	53%
Total yellow cards per match	3.8	3.6
Over 4.5 yellow cards	33%	24%

Head to head

Corners in their meetings: 8.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.