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Troyes vs Marseille: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Troyes 5.1, Marseille 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Troyes 1.8, Marseille 2.4; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Troyes win 25%, draw 25%, Marseille win 51%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Troyes: last five matches — W-W-D-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Marseille: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Troyes — 16, Marseille — 17 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Troyes at home and Marseille away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Troyes | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 36 |
| Win rate | 0% | 47% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 36% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Troyes won 3, 6 draws, Marseille won 13. Per match: 2.3 goals, 11.1 corners, 3.3 yellow cards.
- 16.04.2023: Marseille 3:1 Troyes
- 11.01.2023: Troyes 0:2 Marseille
- 27.02.2022: Troyes 1:1 Marseille
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Troyes vs Marseille?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Troyes vs Marseille?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Troyes vs Marseille?
Market line without margin: Troyes 25%, draw 25%, Marseille 51%.