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Türkiye vs France: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Türkiye 5.1, France 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Türkiye 2.0, France 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Türkiye win 12%, draw 17%, France win 71%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Türkiye: last five matches — D-W-W-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
France: last five matches — W-W-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Türkiye at home and France away, 2024–2026.
| Türkiye | France | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 11 |
| Win rate | 78% | 73% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 73% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 73% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 78% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 40% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Türkiye won 1, 1 draws, France won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals, 8.5 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 14.10.2019: France 1:1 Türkiye
- 08.06.2019: Türkiye 2:0 France
Referee
Felix Zwayer: 367 matches in our database, 4.6 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 51% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Türkiye vs France?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Türkiye vs France?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 38%.
Who is more likely to win Türkiye vs France?
Market line without margin: Türkiye 12%, draw 17%, France 71%.