Xpect
Türkiye vs Italy: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 28 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Türkiye 5.4, Italy 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 42%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Türkiye 2.0, Italy 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Türkiye win 35%, draw 28%, Italy win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Türkiye: last five matches — L-W-W-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
Italy: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Türkiye at home and Italy away, 2024–2026.
| Türkiye | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 12 |
| Win rate | 78% | 75% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 78% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 36% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Türkiye won 0, 1 draws, Italy won 2. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.
- 04.06.2024: Italy 0:0 Türkiye
- 29.03.2022: Türkiye 2:3 Italy
- 11.06.2021: Türkiye 0:3 Italy
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Türkiye vs Italy?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Türkiye vs Italy?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 38%.
Who is more likely to win Türkiye vs Italy?
Market line without margin: Türkiye 35%, draw 28%, Italy 37%.