Xpect
U. Catolica vs A. Italiano: prediction and statistics
Chile · Primera División · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: U. Catolica 5.6, A. Italiano 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: U. Catolica 2.5, A. Italiano 2.9; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 63%, typical match 62%.
Result
Market line without margin: U. Catolica win 61%, draw 23%, A. Italiano win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
U. Catolica: last five matches — W-L-L-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
A. Italiano: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: U. Catolica — 2, A. Italiano — 12 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
U. Catolica at home and A. Italiano away, 2024–2026.
| U. Catolica | A. Italiano | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Win rate | 59% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 71% | 66% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: U. Catolica won 9, 5 draws, A. Italiano won 5. Per match: 2.7 goals, 6.9 corners, 6.4 yellow cards.
- 11.04.2026: A. Italiano 3:4 U. Catolica
- 20.07.2025: A. Italiano 1:1 U. Catolica
- 17.02.2025: U. Catolica 3:1 A. Italiano
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 63%.
Who is more likely to win U. Catolica vs A. Italiano?
Market line without margin: U. Catolica 61%, draw 23%, A. Italiano 16%.