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Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera B · 30 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.6 yellow cards: Union Magdalena 3.0, Real Cartagena 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 66% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 66%, typical match 59%.
Form
Union Magdalena: last five matches — W-D-D-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Real Cartagena: last five matches — D-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Union Magdalena — 5, Real Cartagena — 2 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Union Magdalena at home and Real Cartagena away, 2024–2026.
| Union Magdalena | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 59 |
| Win rate | 58% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 37% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 75% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Union Magdalena won 8, 3 draws, Real Cartagena won 5. Per match: 2.3 goals, 2.3 yellow cards.
- 12.05.2026: Union Magdalena 3:0 Real Cartagena
- 09.05.2026: Real Cartagena 2:1 Union Magdalena
- 23.03.2026: Real Cartagena 2:1 Union Magdalena
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
Our model expects 5.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 66%.