Xpect
Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven: prediction and statistics
Belgium · Pro League · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Union St.-Gilloise 6.4, OH Leuven 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Union St.-Gilloise 1.9, OH Leuven 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Form
Union St.-Gilloise: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 30 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
OH Leuven: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Union St.-Gilloise — 1, OH Leuven — 15 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Union St.-Gilloise at home and OH Leuven away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Union St.-Gilloise | OH Leuven | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Win rate | 79% | 16% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 37% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 61% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 42% |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Union St.-Gilloise won 14, 6 draws, OH Leuven won 6. Per match: 2.8 goals, 11.4 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 24.01.2026: OH Leuven 0:0 Union St.-Gilloise
- 03.08.2025: Union St.-Gilloise 5:0 OH Leuven
- 19.01.2025: Union St.-Gilloise 1:0 OH Leuven
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 47%.