Xpect
Universidad Catolica vs Macara: prediction and statistics
Ecuador · Liga Pro · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Universidad Catolica 5.1, Macara 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Universidad Catolica 1.8, Macara 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 49%.
Result
Market line without margin: Universidad Catolica win 58%, draw 25%, Macara win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Universidad Catolica: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Macara: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Universidad Catolica — 3, Macara — 2 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Universidad Catolica at home and Macara away, 2024–2026.
| Universidad Catolica | Macara | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 51 |
| Win rate | 56% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 24% | 41% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Universidad Catolica won 12, 5 draws, Macara won 3. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.7 corners, 3.7 yellow cards.
- 18.08.2026: Macara 1:1 Universidad Catolica
- 24.04.2026: Universidad Catolica 4:0 Macara
- 27.07.2025: Macara 1:4 Universidad Catolica
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Universidad Catolica vs Macara?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Universidad Catolica vs Macara?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win Universidad Catolica vs Macara?
Market line without margin: Universidad Catolica 58%, draw 25%, Macara 17%.