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Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums: prediction and statistics
Latvia · Virsliga · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Valmiera / BSS · Tukums
Before kick-off
Valmiera / BSS host Tukums in Virsliga on 14 November 2026.
Valmiera / BSS have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Tukums no victory — 1 draw and 4 defeats. Counted in points, Valmiera / BSS took 8 from that stretch and Tukums only 1.
The home record of Valmiera / BSS (2024–2026) is balanced: 9 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats in 18 matches, 2.1 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Tukums find it hard on the road: 7 wins, 13 draws and 34 defeats in 54 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.2 per game in home matches of Valmiera / BSS and 3.2 in away matches of Tukums.
History favours Valmiera / BSS — 20 wins from 30 meetings with Tukums. Last time out (9 November 2024) it ended Valmiera / BSS 2:3 Tukums. On average these meetings produce 4.0 goals.
Form
Valmiera / BSS: last five matches — L-D-D-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Tukums: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 20 matches without a win · away
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Home and away record
Valmiera / BSS at home and Tukums away, 2024–2026.
| Valmiera / BSS | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 18 | 54 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 9-3-6 | 7-13-34 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Head to head
30 meetings in our database: Valmiera / BSS won 20, 4 draws, Tukums won 6. Per match: 4.0 goals.
- 09.11.2024: Valmiera / BSS 2:3 Tukums
- 24.08.2024: Tukums 3:2 Valmiera / BSS
- 14.07.2024: Tukums 2:3 Valmiera / BSS
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Valmiera / BSS has won 20 of the last 30 meetings with Tukums.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 67% of Valmiera / BSS home games and 57% of Tukums away games.
- Our model makes Valmiera / BSS the favourite at 54%; a draw is 21%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Valmiera / BSS 2.1, Tukums 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Valmiera / BSS win 54%, draw 21%, Tukums win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 68%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Valmiera / BSS | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 72% | 54% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.