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Van vs Ararat-Armenia: prediction and statistics
Armenia · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Van · Ararat-Armenia
Before kick-off
Van host Ararat-Armenia in Premier League on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Ararat-Armenia are 3rd of 12, Van 11th — a gap of 8 places. Van are in the bottom three. Ararat-Armenia are part of the leading group.
Van arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Ararat-Armenia are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games.
The home record of Van (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 16 wins, 7 draws and 13 defeats in 36 matches, 1.7 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. On the road Ararat-Armenia are a dangerous side — 22 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats in 33 away matches, 1.9 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
History favours Ararat-Armenia — 17 wins from 24 meetings with Van. Last time out (15 August 2026) it ended Ararat-Armenia 2:0 Van. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Van: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Ararat-Armenia: last five matches — W-L-W-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Van — 11, Ararat-Armenia — 3 (of 12).
Home and away record
Van at home and Ararat-Armenia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Van | Ararat-Armenia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 33 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-7-13 | 22-5-6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Van won 4, 3 draws, Ararat-Armenia won 17. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 15.08.2026: Ararat-Armenia 2:0 Van
- 20.03.2026: Van 2:2 Ararat-Armenia
- 16.03.2026: Ararat-Armenia 3:0 Van
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Ararat-Armenia the favourite at 69%; a draw is 19%.
- Ararat-Armenia has won 17 of the last 24 meetings with Van.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 64% of Van home games and 64% of Ararat-Armenia away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Van 2.2, Ararat-Armenia 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Van win 12%, draw 19%, Ararat-Armenia win 69%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Van | Ararat-Armenia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 49% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.