Xpect
Vipers vs Lugazi: prediction and statistics
Uganda · Premier League · 5 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Our model makes Vipers the favourite at 76%; a draw is 19%.
- Vipers has won 3 of the last 4 meetings with Lugazi.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 38% of Vipers home games and 32% of Lugazi away games.
Result
Final score 2:0.
Result
Our model: Vipers win 76%, draw 19%, Lugazi win 5%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 22%.
Form
Vipers: last five matches — L-D-W-D-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Lugazi: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Vipers — 10, Lugazi — 15 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Vipers at home and Lugazi away, 2024–2026.
| Vipers | Lugazi | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 34 | 34 |
| Win rate | 68% | 12% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 41% | 21% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 9% | 4% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Vipers won 3, 1 draws, Lugazi won 0. Per match: 1.8 goals, 1.5 yellow cards.
- 03.03.2026: Vipers 3:0 Lugazi
- 17.12.2025: Lugazi 1:2 Vipers
- 03.04.2025: Vipers 1:0 Lugazi
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Vipers vs Lugazi?
Our model: Vipers 76%, draw 19%, Lugazi 5%.