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Vitesse vs Jong AZ: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Vitesse host Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Vitesse are 10th, Jong AZ 12th in a table of 20.
Vitesse have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Jong AZ: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Vitesse (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 16 wins, 13 draws and 15 defeats in 44 matches, 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Away from home Jong AZ have 18 wins, 8 draws and 19 defeats in 45 matches, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.0 per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.1 per game in home matches of Vitesse and 3.9 in away matches of Jong AZ.
The 4 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Vitesse 2, Jong AZ 1, draws 1. Last time out (27 February 2026) it ended Vitesse 2:0 Jong AZ. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Vitesse: last five matches — L-W-W-D-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Jong AZ: last five matches — W-L-D-D-L.
- 11 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Vitesse — 10, Jong AZ — 12 (of 20).
Home and away record
Vitesse at home and Jong AZ away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vitesse | Jong AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-13-15 | 18-8-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Vitesse won 2, 1 draws, Jong AZ won 1. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 27.02.2026: Vitesse 2:0 Jong AZ
- 12.09.2025: Jong AZ 4:0 Vitesse
- 04.04.2025: Vitesse 2:2 Jong AZ
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Vitesse should win the corner count: 6.1 expected against 4.3 for Jong AZ.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 68% of Vitesse home games and 73% of Jong AZ away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Vitesse 6.1, Jong AZ 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Vitesse 1.7, Jong AZ 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 70%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: Vitesse win 47%, draw 22%, Jong AZ win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 66%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Vitesse | Jong AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 36% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 73% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 69% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 22% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.