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Xelajú vs Guastatoya: prediction and statistics
Guatemala · Liga Nacional · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Xelajú · Guastatoya
Before kick-off
Liga Nacional, 14 November 2026: Xelajú are at home to Guastatoya. They are neighbours in the table: Xelajú are 3rd and Guastatoya 4th of 12. Xelajú are part of the leading group.
Few sides are in better shape than Xelajú right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Guastatoya have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for Xelajú against 6 for Guastatoya.
Xelajú are hard to beat on their own ground — 38 wins, 12 draws and 5 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), with 2.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Guastatoya — 10 wins, 15 draws and 26 defeats in 51 away matches, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.4 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 53 meetings — wins: Xelajú 13, Guastatoya 21; draws: 19. The most recent meeting, on 13 September 2026, finished Guastatoya 2:1 Xelajú. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Xelajú: last five matches — L-W-W-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
Guastatoya: last five matches — D-W-L-D-D.
- 8 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Xelajú — 3, Guastatoya — 4 (of 12).
Home and away record
Xelajú at home and Guastatoya away, 2024–2026.
| Xelajú | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 51 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 38-12-5 | 10-15-26 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.4 |
Head to head
53 meetings in our database: Xelajú won 13, 19 draws, Guastatoya won 21. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 13.09.2026: Guastatoya 2:1 Xelajú
- 29.03.2026: Xelajú 1:1 Guastatoya
- 08.02.2026: Guastatoya 1:0 Xelajú
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Xelajú is the more likely winner in our model: 63%, draw 22%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 51% of Xelajú’s home matches and 31% of Guastatoya’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.6 yellow cards: Xelajú 2.6, Guastatoya 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 66% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 66%, typical match 62%.
Result
Our model: Xelajú win 63%, draw 22%, Guastatoya win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 45%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Xelajú | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 69% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 63% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.