Zaqatala vs MOIK: prediction and statistics

Azerbaijan · First Division · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 11:00 UTC

Team stats: Zaqatala · MOIK

Key facts

• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 57% of Zaqatala home games and 48% of MOIK away games.
• Our model makes MOIK the favourite at 55%; a draw is 23%.

Result

Our model: Zaqatala win 23%, draw 23%, MOIK win 55%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 57%.

Form

Zaqatala: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.

• 5 losses in a row · all competitions
• 5 matches without a win · all competitions
• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home

MOIK: last five matches — L-D-L-W-W.

• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions

Table: Zaqatala — 9, MOIK — 3 (of 10).

Team statistics for three seasons

Zaqatala at home and MOIK away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Head to head

26 meetings in our database: Zaqatala won 9, 6 draws, MOIK won 11. Per match: 2.7 goals, 0.3 yellow cards.

• 15.04.2026: MOIK 2:1 Zaqatala
• 17.12.2025: Zaqatala 1:3 MOIK
• 25.09.2025: MOIK 0:1 Zaqatala

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers