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AC Milan vs Atalanta: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: AC Milan 4.9, Atalanta 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: AC Milan 1.6, Atalanta 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 71%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: AC Milan win 46%, draw 25%, Atalanta win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
AC Milan: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Atalanta: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: AC Milan — 5, Atalanta — 11 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
AC Milan at home and Atalanta away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AC Milan | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Win rate | 50% | 48% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 35% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 23% |
Head to head
55 meetings in our database: AC Milan won 24, 16 draws, Atalanta won 15. Per match: 2.6 goals, 9.8 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 10.05.2026: AC Milan 2:3 Atalanta
- 28.10.2025: Atalanta 1:1 AC Milan
- 20.04.2025: AC Milan 0:1 Atalanta
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 29%.
Who is more likely to win AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our model: AC Milan 46%, draw 25%, Atalanta 28%.