Xpect
Accrington ST vs Gillingham: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Accrington ST 5.0, Gillingham 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 62%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Accrington ST 1.7, Gillingham 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.
Form
Accrington ST: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 12 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Gillingham: last five matches — W-D-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Accrington ST — 16, Gillingham — 10 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Accrington ST at home and Gillingham away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Accrington ST | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 50 |
| Win rate | 31% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 45% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 36% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Accrington ST won 3, 6 draws, Gillingham won 8. Per match: 2.0 goals, 10.1 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 06.04.2026: Gillingham 2:0 Accrington ST
- 02.08.2025: Accrington ST 1:1 Gillingham
- 15.03.2025: Accrington ST 1:1 Gillingham
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.