Xpect
Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Águilas Doradas 5.1, Deportes Tolima 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Águilas Doradas 2.3, Deportes Tolima 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 77%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Águilas Doradas win 46%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Águilas Doradas: last five matches — D-D-D-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Deportes Tolima: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Águilas Doradas — 13, Deportes Tolima — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Águilas Doradas at home and Deportes Tolima away, 2024–2026.
| Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 70 |
| Win rate | 35% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 55% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Águilas Doradas won 4, 8 draws, Deportes Tolima won 12. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.2 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 01.04.2026: Deportes Tolima 4:1 Águilas Doradas
- 14.11.2025: Águilas Doradas 1:2 Deportes Tolima
- 25.05.2025: Deportes Tolima 1:2 Águilas Doradas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 60%.
Who is more likely to win Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?
Our model: Águilas Doradas 46%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 27%.