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Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Atletico Nacional 5.4, Deportivo Pasto 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.6 yellow cards: Atletico Nacional 2.5, Deportivo Pasto 3.1; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 65% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 81%, typical match 82%.
Form
Atletico Nacional: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Deportivo Pasto: last five matches — L-D-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Atletico Nacional — 1, Deportivo Pasto — 11 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Nacional at home and Deportivo Pasto away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 64 | 58 |
| Win rate | 67% | 21% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 81% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Atletico Nacional won 18, 4 draws, Deportivo Pasto won 2. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.9 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 29.03.2026: Deportivo Pasto 1:2 Atletico Nacional
- 18.10.2025: Deportivo Pasto 2:2 Atletico Nacional
- 30.04.2025: Atletico Nacional 3:0 Deportivo Pasto
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our model expects 5.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 65%.