Xpect
Albania vs Belarus: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.6 corners in the match: Albania 4.8, Belarus 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 36% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 51%, typical match 45%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Albania 1.5, Belarus 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Albania win 63%, draw 24%, Belarus win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 39%.
Form
Albania: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Belarus: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Albania at home and Belarus away, 2024–2026.
| Albania | Belarus | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 11 |
| Win rate | 38% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 23% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 7.1 | 11.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 9% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 8% | 55% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Albania won 2, 0 draws, Belarus won 0. Per match: 3.5 goals, 11.0 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 18.11.2020: Albania 3:2 Belarus
- 04.09.2020: Belarus 0:2 Albania
Referee
Samuel Barrott: 207 matches in our database, 3.6 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 27% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Albania vs Belarus?
Our model expects 8.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 36%.
How many yellow cards in Albania vs Belarus?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Albania vs Belarus?
Market line without margin: Albania 63%, draw 24%, Belarus 14%.