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Aston Villa vs Brentford: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Aston Villa 5.8, Brentford 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Aston Villa 1.7, Brentford 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 31% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 50%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Aston Villa win 36%, draw 27%, Brentford win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Aston Villa: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · at home
Brentford: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Aston Villa — 16, Brentford — 4 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Aston Villa at home and Brentford away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Win rate | 57% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 73% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 33% |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Aston Villa won 4, 7 draws, Brentford won 7. Per match: 3.0 goals, 12.8 corners, 3.9 yellow cards.
- 01.02.2026: Aston Villa 0:1 Brentford
- 16.09.2025: Brentford 5:3 Aston Villa
- 23.08.2025: Brentford 1:0 Aston Villa
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 31%.
Who is more likely to win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Market line without margin: Aston Villa 36%, draw 27%, Brentford 37%.