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Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Atlanta United FC 5.5, New York City FC 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 50%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Atlanta United FC 2.4, New York City FC 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 63%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atlanta United FC win 42%, draw 26%, New York City FC win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Atlanta United FC: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
New York City FC: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Atlanta United FC — 28, New York City FC — 18 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atlanta United FC at home and New York City FC away, 2024–2026.
| Atlanta United FC | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 52 |
| Win rate | 32% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 77% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 26% | 54% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Atlanta United FC won 5, 8 draws, New York City FC won 6. Per match: 3.3 goals, 9.5 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 12.06.2025: New York City FC 4:0 Atlanta United FC
- 29.03.2025: Atlanta United FC 4:3 New York City FC
- 17.07.2024: Atlanta United FC 2:2 New York City FC
Referee
Alexis Da Silva: 54 matches in our database, 4.3 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 46% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.
Who is more likely to win Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Market line without margin: Atlanta United FC 42%, draw 26%, New York City FC 32%.