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Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Atlas 4.6, Guadalajara Chivas 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 50%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Atlas 2.2, Guadalajara Chivas 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Atlas win 31%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Atlas: last five matches — L-W-L-D-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Guadalajara Chivas: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 13 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 9 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Atlas — 6, Guadalajara Chivas — 3 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Atlas at home and Guadalajara Chivas away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Atlas | Guadalajara Chivas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 42 |
| Win rate | 33% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 48% |
Head to head
34 meetings in our database: Atlas won 8, 10 draws, Guadalajara Chivas won 16. Per match: 2.1 goals, 9.2 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 30.03.2026: Atlas 0:1 Guadalajara Chivas
- 08.03.2026: Atlas 1:2 Guadalajara Chivas
- 04.01.2026: Atlas 0:0 Guadalajara Chivas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Market line without margin: Atlas 31%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas 43%.