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Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG: prediction and statistics
South America · Copa Sudamericana · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Atletico Torque · Atletico-MG
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Atletico Torque’s home matches and 31% of Atletico-MG’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Atletico Torque: 6.0 against 3.5 for Atletico-MG.
- Atletico-MG is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 23%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Atletico Torque 6.0, Atletico-MG 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Atletico Torque 2.2, Atletico-MG 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 59% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Atletico Torque win 20%, draw 23%, Atletico-MG win 57%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Atletico Torque: last five matches — W-D-L-D-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Atletico-MG: last five matches — D-D-L-L-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Atletico Torque at home and Atletico-MG away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Torque | Atletico-MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 13 |
| Win rate | 100% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 7.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 15% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 39% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 59%.
Who is more likely to win Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG?
Our model: Atletico Torque 20%, draw 23%, Atletico-MG 57%.