Xpect
Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: prediction and statistics
South America · Copa Sudamericana · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Vasco DA Gama · Boca Juniors
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 42% – 28% – 30%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 40% of Vasco DA Gama’s home matches and 50% of Boca Juniors’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Vasco DA Gama 4.5, Boca Juniors 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 60%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Vasco DA Gama 2.7, Boca Juniors 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Vasco DA Gama win 42%, draw 28%, Boca Juniors win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Vasco DA Gama: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Boca Juniors: last five matches — D-D-W-W-D.
- 17 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Vasco DA Gama at home and Boca Juniors away, 2024–2026.
| Vasco DA Gama | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 8 |
| Win rate | 60% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 20% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 63% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 57%.
Who is more likely to win Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
Our model: Vasco DA Gama 42%, draw 28%, Boca Juniors 30%.