Xpect
Austin vs Nashville SC: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Austin 5.2, Nashville SC 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Austin 1.7, Nashville SC 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 62%.
Result
Market line without margin: Austin win 25%, draw 25%, Nashville SC win 50%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Austin: last five matches — L-D-D-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Nashville SC: last five matches — L-W-D-L-D.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Austin — 23, Nashville SC — 1 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Austin at home and Nashville SC away, 2024–2026.
| Austin | Nashville SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 49 |
| Win rate | 38% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 37% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Austin won 2, 1 draws, Nashville SC won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals, 11.3 corners, 3.7 yellow cards.
- 02.10.2025: Austin 1:2 Nashville SC
- 15.02.2025: Austin 2:1 Nashville SC
- 25.08.2024: Nashville SC 0:2 Austin
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Austin vs Nashville SC?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Austin vs Nashville SC?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Austin vs Nashville SC?
Market line without margin: Austin 25%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 50%.