Xpect
Austin vs San Diego: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Austin 5.3, San Diego 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Austin 2.0, San Diego 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 64%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Austin win 42%, draw 25%, San Diego win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Austin: last five matches — W-L-D-D-D.
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
San Diego: last five matches — L-W-L-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Austin — 22, San Diego — 21 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Austin at home and San Diego away, 2024–2026.
| Austin | San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 30 |
| Win rate | 38% | 47% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 11.0 | 8.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 66% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 43% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Austin won 1, 0 draws, San Diego won 2. Per match: 3.3 goals, 10.7 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 14.05.2026: San Diego 5:0 Austin
- 01.06.2025: San Diego 2:0 Austin
- 23.03.2025: Austin 2:1 San Diego
Referee
Jon Freemon: 113 matches in our database, 4.6 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 50% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Austin vs San Diego?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Austin vs San Diego?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.
Who is more likely to win Austin vs San Diego?
Market line without margin: Austin 42%, draw 25%, San Diego 33%.