Xpect
Bandari vs Tusker: prediction and statistics
Kenya · FKF Premier League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 35% – 33% – 32%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 17% of Bandari’s home matches and 34% of Tusker’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Final score 1:0.
Result
Our model: Bandari win 35%, draw 33%, Tusker win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 26%, both teams to score — 34%.
Form
Bandari: last five matches — D-L-W-D-D.
- 9 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Tusker: last five matches — L-L-D-W-D.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Bandari — 10, Tusker — 8 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Bandari at home and Tusker away, 2024–2026.
| Bandari | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 35 |
| Win rate | 36% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Bandari won 9, 5 draws, Tusker won 13. Per match: 1.8 goals.
- 24.05.2026: Bandari 1:0 Tusker
- 17.01.2026: Tusker 1:2 Bandari
- 02.03.2025: Bandari 0:0 Tusker
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Bandari vs Tusker?
Our model: Bandari 35%, draw 33%, Tusker 32%.