Bayern Munich vs FC Cologne: prediction and statistics

Germany · Bundesliga · 20 November 2026 · kick-off 19:30 UTC

Team stats: Bayern Munich · FC Cologne

Before kick-off

Bayern Munich host FC Cologne in Bundesliga on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Bayern Munich are 1st of 18, FC Cologne 15th — a gap of 14 places.

Bayern Munich arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought FC Cologne no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Counted in points, Bayern Munich took 11 from that stretch and FC Cologne only 2.

Home advantage matters here: Bayern Munich have 31 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 3.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. FC Cologne find it hard on the road: 2 wins, 8 draws and 11 defeats in 21 away matches, 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 4.7 per game in home matches of Bayern Munich and 3.0 in away matches of FC Cologne.

History favours Bayern Munich — 33 wins from 48 meetings with FC Cologne. Last time out (16 May 2026) it ended Bayern Munich 5:1 FC Cologne. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.

Key facts

• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 92% of Bayern Munich home games and 52% of FC Cologne away games.
• Our model makes Bayern Munich the favourite at 88%; a draw is 8%.
• Bayern Munich should win the corner count: 7.5 expected against 2.8 for FC Cologne.
• Bayern Munich has won 33 of the last 48 meetings with FC Cologne.

Corners

Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Bayern Munich 7.5, FC Cologne 2.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 50%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 50%.

Yellow cards

Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Bayern Munich 1.8, FC Cologne 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 35%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 65%.

Result

Our model: Bayern Munich win 88%, draw 8%, FC Cologne win 4%. Over 2.5 goals — 77%, both teams to score — 46%.

Form

Bayern Munich: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.

• 21 matches unbeaten · at home
• 11 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
• 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home

FC Cologne: last five matches — L-L-D-L-D.

• 5 matches without a win · away
• 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions

Table: Bayern Munich — 1, FC Cologne — 15 (of 18).

Team statistics for three seasons

Bayern Munich at home and FC Cologne away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Head to head

48 meetings in our database: Bayern Munich won 33, 10 draws, FC Cologne won 5. Per match: 3.3 goals, 11.7 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.

• 16.05.2026: Bayern Munich 5:1 FC Cologne
• 14.01.2026: FC Cologne 1:3 Bayern Munich
• 29.10.2025: FC Cologne 1:4 Bayern Munich

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers