Xpect
Birmingham vs Preston: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 13 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.7 corners in the match: Birmingham 7.2, Preston 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 63% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 51%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Birmingham 1.5, Preston 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Birmingham win 64%, draw 21%, Preston win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Birmingham: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Preston: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Birmingham at home and Preston away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Birmingham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 50 |
| Win rate | 44% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 28% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Birmingham won 6, 6 draws, Preston won 8. Per match: 2.2 goals, 9.8 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 22.04.2026: Birmingham 2:1 Preston
- 21.10.2025: Preston 0:1 Birmingham
- 01.04.2024: Birmingham 1:0 Preston
Referee
Sam Allison: 16 matches in our database, 3.5 yellow cards per match (competition average 3.8); over 4.5 cards in 25% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Birmingham vs Preston?
Our model expects 10.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 63%.
How many yellow cards in Birmingham vs Preston?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Birmingham vs Preston?
Our model: Birmingham 64%, draw 21%, Preston 16%.