Xpect
Bolton vs Stoke City: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Bolton 5.9, Stoke City 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Bolton 1.6, Stoke City 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 48%.
Result
Market line without margin: Bolton win 35%, draw 27%, Stoke City win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Bolton: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Stoke City: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Bolton vs Stoke City?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Bolton vs Stoke City?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Bolton vs Stoke City?
Market line without margin: Bolton 35%, draw 27%, Stoke City 38%.