Xpect
Birmingham vs QPR: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Birmingham 5.9, QPR 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Birmingham 1.7, QPR 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 53%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Birmingham win 50%, draw 24%, QPR win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Birmingham: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
QPR: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Birmingham at home and QPR away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Birmingham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 51 |
| Win rate | 44% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 33% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Birmingham won 6, 5 draws, QPR won 11. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.3 corners, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 11.03.2026: Birmingham 1:0 QPR
- 09.12.2025: QPR 2:1 Birmingham
- 29.03.2024: QPR 2:1 Birmingham
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Birmingham vs QPR?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Birmingham vs QPR?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Birmingham vs QPR?
Our model: Birmingham 50%, draw 24%, QPR 26%.