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Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 9 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Borussia Dortmund 5.4, Werder Bremen 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Borussia Dortmund 1.6, Werder Bremen 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Borussia Dortmund win 69%, draw 18%, Werder Bremen win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Borussia Dortmund: last five matches — D-L-W-W-W.
- 6 wins in a row · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Werder Bremen: last five matches — W-W-W-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Borussia Dortmund — 1, Werder Bremen — 8 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Borussia Dortmund at home and Werder Bremen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 72% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 61% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 19% | 36% |
Head to head
66 meetings in our database: Borussia Dortmund won 35, 14 draws, Werder Bremen won 17. Per match: 3.1 goals, 11.0 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 16.05.2026: Werder Bremen 0:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 13.01.2026: Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Werder Bremen
- 25.01.2025: Borussia Dortmund 2:2 Werder Bremen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.
Who is more likely to win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Market line without margin: Borussia Dortmund 69%, draw 18%, Werder Bremen 13%.