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Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 29 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.1 corners in the match: Botafogo SP 6.7, Ponte Preta 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 67% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 56%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Botafogo SP 2.2, Ponte Preta 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Result
Market line without margin: Botafogo SP win 75%, draw 15%, Ponte Preta win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Botafogo SP: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Ponte Preta: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 11 losses in a row · away
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 8 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Botafogo SP — 16, Ponte Preta — 20 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Botafogo SP at home and Ponte Preta away, 2024–2026.
| Botafogo SP | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 33 |
| Win rate | 31% | 6% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 11.0 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 61% | 56% |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Botafogo SP won 4, 5 draws, Ponte Preta won 6. Per match: 1.3 goals, 9.3 corners, 6.0 yellow cards.
- 01.06.2026: Ponte Preta 0:0 Botafogo SP
- 15.02.2025: Ponte Preta 0:0 Botafogo SP
- 05.10.2024: Ponte Preta 1:0 Botafogo SP
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?
Our model expects 11.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 67%.
How many yellow cards in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.
Who is more likely to win Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?
Market line without margin: Botafogo SP 75%, draw 15%, Ponte Preta 10%.