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Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 7 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Botafogo 5.5, Vasco DA Gama 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Botafogo 2.3, Vasco DA Gama 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 50%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Botafogo win 35%, draw 27%, Vasco DA Gama win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Botafogo: last five matches — W-L-D-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Vasco DA Gama: last five matches — L-W-L-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Botafogo — 12, Vasco DA Gama — 16 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Botafogo at home and Vasco DA Gama away, 2024–2026.
| Botafogo | Vasco DA Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 51 |
| Win rate | 54% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 65% | 45% |
Head to head
37 meetings in our database: Botafogo won 16, 9 draws, Vasco DA Gama won 12. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.3 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 05.04.2026: Vasco DA Gama 1:2 Botafogo
- 08.02.2026: Vasco DA Gama 2:0 Botafogo
- 05.11.2025: Botafogo 3:0 Vasco DA Gama
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Market line without margin: Botafogo 35%, draw 27%, Vasco DA Gama 38%.