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Celaya vs Tigres de Alica: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga Premier · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Celaya · Tigres de Alica
Key facts
- Celaya is the more likely winner in our model: 56%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 67% of Celaya’s home matches and 67% of Tigres de Alica’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Final score 1:1.
Result
Our model: Celaya win 56%, draw 23%, Tigres de Alica win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Celaya: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Tigres de Alica: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Celaya — 4, Tigres de Alica — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Celaya at home and Tigres de Alica away, 2026.
| Celaya | Tigres de Alica | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Win rate | 83% | 17% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Celaya vs Tigres de Alica?
Our model: Celaya 56%, draw 23%, Tigres de Alica 22%.