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Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.7 corners in the match: Chelsea 6.2, AFC Bournemouth 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 63% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 51%, typical match 47%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Chelsea 1.8, AFC Bournemouth 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 57%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Chelsea win 55%, draw 23%, AFC Bournemouth win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Chelsea: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
AFC Bournemouth: last five matches — D-L-L-D-W.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Chelsea — 10, AFC Bournemouth — 17 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chelsea at home and AFC Bournemouth away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Win rate | 50% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 73% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 75% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 45% | 45% |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Chelsea won 12, 5 draws, AFC Bournemouth won 4. Per match: 2.5 goals, 11.9 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 30.12.2025: Chelsea 2:2 AFC Bournemouth
- 06.12.2025: AFC Bournemouth 0:0 Chelsea
- 14.01.2025: Chelsea 2:2 AFC Bournemouth
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
Our model expects 10.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 63%.
How many yellow cards in Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth?
Market line without margin: Chelsea 55%, draw 23%, AFC Bournemouth 22%.