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Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cheltenham · Fleetwood Town
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Cheltenham 5.2, Fleetwood Town 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Cheltenham 1.7, Fleetwood Town 2.4; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Cheltenham win 31%, draw 25%, Fleetwood Town win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Cheltenham: last five matches — D-D-W-L-D.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Fleetwood Town: last five matches — D-D-L-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Cheltenham — 8, Fleetwood Town — 16 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cheltenham at home and Fleetwood Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 51 |
| Win rate | 43% | 31% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 61% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 45% |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Cheltenham won 5, 4 draws, Fleetwood Town won 5. Per match: 2.4 goals, 8.9 corners, 5.1 yellow cards.
- 10.03.2026: Fleetwood Town 2:2 Cheltenham
- 04.10.2025: Cheltenham 2:0 Fleetwood Town
- 08.02.2025: Fleetwood Town 2:0 Cheltenham
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model: Cheltenham 31%, draw 25%, Fleetwood Town 44%.