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Chesterfield vs Colchester: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chesterfield · Colchester
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Chesterfield 6.4, Colchester 3.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Chesterfield 1.8, Colchester 2.5; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 63%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Chesterfield win 50%, draw 25%, Colchester win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 51%.
Form
Chesterfield: last five matches — D-W-W-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Colchester: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Chesterfield — 7, Colchester — 19 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chesterfield at home and Colchester away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Chesterfield | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 51 |
| Win rate | 43% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 39% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Chesterfield won 4, 5 draws, Colchester won 4. Per match: 3.1 goals, 9.8 corners, 3.3 yellow cards.
- 03.03.2026: Chesterfield 3:0 Colchester
- 04.10.2025: Colchester 6:2 Chesterfield
- 04.03.2025: Colchester 1:0 Chesterfield
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Our model: Chesterfield 50%, draw 25%, Colchester 25%.