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Chico vs Atletico Nacional: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Chico 4.8, Atletico Nacional 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Chico 2.5, Atletico Nacional 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 59% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 76%, typical match 82%.
Form
Chico: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Atletico Nacional: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Chico — 17, Atletico Nacional — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chico at home and Atletico Nacional away, 2024–2026.
| Chico | Atletico Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 68 |
| Win rate | 38% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 75% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Chico won 1, 3 draws, Atletico Nacional won 9. Per match: 3.5 goals, 9.3 corners, 4.9 yellow cards.
- 17.01.2026: Atletico Nacional 4:0 Chico
- 06.10.2025: Chico 1:1 Atletico Nacional
- 16.04.2025: Atletico Nacional 4:1 Chico
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Chico vs Atletico Nacional?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in Chico vs Atletico Nacional?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 59%.