Xpect
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Cuiaba 6.3, Ponte Preta 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Cuiaba 2.0, Ponte Preta 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 52%, typical match 46%.
Form
Cuiaba: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
Ponte Preta: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 11 losses in a row · away
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 8 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Cuiaba — 10, Ponte Preta — 20 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cuiaba at home and Ponte Preta away, 2024–2026.
| Cuiaba | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 34 | 33 |
| Win rate | 53% | 6% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 38% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 55% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Cuiaba won 2, 2 draws, Ponte Preta won 2. Per match: 3.2 goals, 9.4 corners, 3.2 yellow cards.
- 09.06.2026: Ponte Preta 1:2 Cuiaba
- 11.01.2021: Ponte Preta 2:2 Cuiaba
- 09.10.2020: Cuiaba 2:1 Ponte Preta
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 48%.