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Excelsior vs FC Groningen: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eredivisie · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Excelsior 5.3, FC Groningen 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 55%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards: Excelsior 1.3, FC Groningen 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 17% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 67%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Excelsior win 37%, draw 26%, FC Groningen win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Excelsior: last five matches — D-W-L-W-L.
- 10 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
FC Groningen: last five matches — L-L-W-L-D.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Excelsior — 7, FC Groningen — 8 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Excelsior at home and FC Groningen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Excelsior | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 20 | 37 |
| Win rate | 30% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 8.4 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 15% | 14% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Excelsior won 6, 5 draws, FC Groningen won 13. Per match: 2.8 goals, 9.4 corners, 1.5 yellow cards.
- 02.05.2026: FC Groningen 2:3 Excelsior
- 05.12.2025: Excelsior 0:2 FC Groningen
- 16.01.2024: Excelsior 0:2 FC Groningen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 17%.
Who is more likely to win Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Market line without margin: Excelsior 37%, draw 26%, FC Groningen 37%.