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Exeter City vs Crewe: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Exeter City · Crewe
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Exeter City 5.7, Crewe 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Exeter City 1.5, Crewe 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 56%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Exeter City win 39%, draw 28%, Crewe win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 48%.
Form
Exeter City: last five matches — D-W-D-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Crewe: last five matches — D-D-D-D-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Exeter City — 14, Crewe — 3 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Exeter City at home and Crewe away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Exeter City | Crewe | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 51 |
| Win rate | 40% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 20% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 37% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Exeter City won 5, 2 draws, Crewe won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals, 11.3 corners, 2.3 yellow cards.
- 03.03.2020: Exeter City 1:1 Crewe
- 05.10.2019: Crewe 1:1 Exeter City
- 23.02.2019: Crewe 1:2 Exeter City
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Exeter City vs Crewe?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Exeter City vs Crewe?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 26%.
Who is more likely to win Exeter City vs Crewe?
Our model: Exeter City 39%, draw 28%, Crewe 33%.