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FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers: prediction and statistics
Switzerland · Super League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Lugano · Grasshoppers
Before kick-off
Super League, 21 November 2026: FC Lugano are at home to Grasshoppers. FC Lugano sit 1st in the 12-team table while Grasshoppers are 10th, so 9 places separate the two sides. Grasshoppers are in the bottom three.
Few sides are in better shape than FC Lugano right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Grasshoppers have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for FC Lugano against 7 for Grasshoppers.
FC Lugano are hard to beat on their own ground — 27 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats in 45 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Grasshoppers — 9 wins, 11 draws and 26 defeats in 46 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.8 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 31 meetings — wins: FC Lugano 13, Grasshoppers 7; draws: 11. The most recent meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished Grasshoppers 1:4 FC Lugano. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
FC Lugano: last five matches — L-W-W-W-W.
- 13 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
Grasshoppers: last five matches — L-W-L-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: FC Lugano — 1, Grasshoppers — 10 (of 12).
Home and away record
FC Lugano at home and Grasshoppers away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Lugano | Grasshoppers | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 46 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 27-9-9 | 9-11-26 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
Head to head
31 meetings in our database: FC Lugano won 13, 11 draws, Grasshoppers won 7. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 02.08.2026: Grasshoppers 1:4 FC Lugano
- 01.03.2026: Grasshoppers 1:0 FC Lugano
- 31.01.2026: Grasshoppers 1:1 FC Lugano
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 64% of FC Lugano’s home matches and 48% of Grasshoppers’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from FC Lugano: 6.1 against 4.3 for Grasshoppers.
- FC Lugano is the more likely winner in our model: 81%, draw 12%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: FC Lugano 6.1, Grasshoppers 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: FC Lugano 2.3, Grasshoppers 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: FC Lugano win 81%, draw 12%, Grasshoppers win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 75%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Lugano | Grasshoppers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 52% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.