Xpect
Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Fortaleza EC 5.5, Athletic Club 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Fortaleza EC 2.1, Athletic Club 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 46%.
Result
Market line without margin: Fortaleza EC win 55%, draw 27%, Athletic Club win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Fortaleza EC: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 10 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Athletic Club: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Fortaleza EC vs Athletic Club?
Market line without margin: Fortaleza EC 55%, draw 27%, Athletic Club 18%.