Xpect
Garudayaksa vs Persepam Madura Utd: prediction and statistics
Indonesia · Liga 1 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Garudayaksa · Persepam Madura Utd
Before kick-off
Liga 1, 20 November 2026: Garudayaksa are at home to Persepam Madura Utd. Persepam Madura Utd sit 4th in the 18-team table while Garudayaksa are 10th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Garudayaksa are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Persepam Madura Utd have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Garudayaksa are hard to beat on their own ground — 4 wins and 2 defeats in 6 home matches (2024–2026), with 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The away record of Persepam Madura Utd: 10 wins, 7 draws and 21 defeats in 38 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Garudayaksa: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Persepam Madura Utd: last five matches — L-W-L-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Garudayaksa — 10, Persepam Madura Utd — 4 (of 18).
Home and away record
Garudayaksa at home and Persepam Madura Utd away, 2024–2026.
| Garudayaksa | Persepam Madura Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-0-2 | 10-7-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 44% – 25% – 32%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 67% of Garudayaksa’s home matches and 50% of Persepam Madura Utd’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Garudayaksa 2.1, Persepam Madura Utd 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Garudayaksa win 44%, draw 25%, Persepam Madura Utd win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Garudayaksa | Persepam Madura Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 37% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.